The hottest overcapacity has become the biggest ba

  • Detail

Overcapacity has become the biggest barrier to the development of China's chemical industry

Zhu Fang, deputy director of the Information Department of the China Petrochemical Association, said that the petrochemical industry has an economic cycle in its economic operation. At present, the investment in the industry is growing very fast, but excessive investment will inevitably lead to overcapacity in the future, resulting in the decline of the industry cycle. Investment drives consumption, but it does not fundamentally solve the "strange circle" of the economic cycle

guoyongxin, director of the industry research division of the China Light Industry Information Center, said that many plastic enterprises in Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have stopped production. "Even without this financial crisis, China's chemical industry must undergo a major transformation, and a number of people must die." Xuqiutang, President of Shanghai Chemical Industry Association, said

overcapacity is not unique to China. Zhu Fang predicts that by 2012, the world's polyethylene output will reach 82.9 million tons and the world's PVC output will reach 47.69 million tons. All over the world, we will face the pattern of supply and demand

unspeakable recovery

recently, the state has implemented a series of supportive policies to improve the economic benefits of plastic products related industries and reduce the losses of enterprises. At the same time, import and export trade showed signs of recovery

however, Guo Yongxin believes that the state is somewhat "indecisive" in adjusting the export tax rebate rate and misses a good opportunity to save enterprises. "At present, the export of the plastic industry has basically increased to 11% and up to 13%, which is the result of seven adjustments. If it is increased to the seventh level at the first time, the economic deterioration will not be so fast."

Guo Yongxin predicted that since one quarter of the light industry market depends on the international market, and international consumer demand is still weak, the industry will rise in the second half of the year. Xu qiutang predicted that the trend of next year is not optimistic, and the comprehensive recovery of the chemical industry will take twoorthree years

it is difficult to set prices

whether it is recovery or bottoming out, the chemical industry is still facing the risk of price fluctuations

zhaotiebin, head of the plastic headquarters of Sinochem Products Co., Ltd., pointed out that when the price rises, the risk of the enterprise comes from the fact that the pre-sale products are not priced. At this time, the enterprise is particularly suitable for the engineering construction department to hedge the risk by "buying futures contracts"; When the price falls, the risk comes from inventory and materials in transit. In this case, the enterprise can avoid risk by selling the corresponding futures contract

Ma Junfeng, deputy general manager of Dongzheng futures, believes that chemical futures has great potential to create an environment-friendly, comfortable and clean environment in the future. PVC (polyvinyl chloride) futures, as a newly listed futures chemical product, has been very active. The trading volume of the main contract has changed from a few when it was just listed in May, but the condition for the transformation of the old machine is that the frame part of the original machine, the power system (motor, oil pump) and the force application system (oil cylinder) must be in good condition. At present, the trading volume and price of nearly 400000 hands per day have broken through the "partner" of 000 yuan in the experimental field of 85 mine at one fell swoop. Futures prices will play a very important role in the recovery of the industry in the second half of the year

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI